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Takeaways from the Network Upfronts

Let the buying begin. Ad Age reports that the first Upfront deals are breaking. As expected it’s going to be fast and furious. The Upfront presentations were noticeably streamlined with ABC, CBS & Turner all laying claiming to #1 status. Happily, the Networks showed they were willing to spend in pursuit of quality programming. In light of last year’s Leno debacle, more investment in scripted programming was evident. Unfortunately, much of what was offered did not look particularly fresh, or innovative. Preview clips are on Hollywood Reporter.

Additional observations:

Kudos to CBS for bold rescheduling

Historically, CBS has been in a position of strength, but always played it safe from a scheduling standpoint. This year, they’ve shaken things up, and are getting accolades from the industry for their strategic scheduling: moving Survivor to lead Wednesdays; moving hit series Big Bang Theory to Thursday to challenge NBC’s long-established sitcom night; shifting CSI: Miami and NY to anchor Sundays and Fridays, respectively – and in doing so, creating a seemingly bullet-proof schedule.

mediahub’s early forecast

  • Due to its audacious scheduling moves, we anticipate CBS will claim pole position this Fall, with ABC and FOX nipping at its heels.
  • With the loss of the bewildering Lost, and a bevy of aging Housewives, ABC is gambling on unconventional shows like No Ordinary Family and My Generation to add to its Modern Family bulwark– and may succeed.
  • FOX, with Idol winding down, a limping House, and X-Factor still a year away, is leaning on shows like Lonestar and Lie To Me to complement current cult hit, Glee.
  • NBC may have a chance of recovery, given its new crop of quality shows (Undercovers, The Event, Outsourced, Love Bites) – returning to its roots of solid programs with an upscale, bicoastal appeal – but still has a perilous journey ahead.

Upfront posturing has already begun, with networks anticipating writing double-digit increases, and advertisers balking. The Upfront haul is predicted to be up 15% to 20% year to year, with Cable potentially benefiting from the migration of dollars due to Primetime’s aggressive demands. Digital spend is also anticipated to be on the rise, assisted by Nielsen’s introduction of its Extended Screen Ratings in 4Q10 (for identical commercials airing both on-air and online).

note: John Moore and Steve Kalb contributed to this post.

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